Country: Uganda
Closing date: 18 May 2018
1. Introduction
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership of the 10 Nile Basin riparian states with a shared vision objective to promote sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of and benefit from the shared Nile Basin water resources. NBI has three programs, namely, the Basin-Wide Program implemented by the NBI Secretariat located in Entebbe, Uganda, the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) implemented by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) implemented by NELSAP Coordination Unit located in Kigali, Rwanda.
The ENSAP and NELSAP focus on preparation and implementation facilitation of investments in water infrastructure in the Eastern Nile sub-basins and the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basins, respectively. The Basin-Wide Program has a geographic scope of the entire Nile Basin and focuses on facilitating the dialogue among the riparian countries, carrying out analytic work (such as strategic water resources analysis) to inform the dialogue, formulation of transboundary policies, strengthening basin monitoring and data sharing and capacity development for cooperative water resources management.
To support the on-going strategic water resources analysis, the Nile-Sec intends to employ the services of an individual consultant (the Consultant) to develop projections of water demand and scenarios of water saving from key uses in the Municipal and Industrial sectors, hereinafter referred to as ‘the Assignment’.
The assignment described in this ToR is funded through NBI member country contributions, German Government and the European Union through the EU – BMZ program on transboundary water cooperation for the Nile Basin.
This document presents the terms of reference for the Assignment. The Consultant will be selected competitively based on Nile-Sec’s procurement procedures.
2. Background
The NBI Secretariat (Nile-Sec) launched its strategic water resources analysis in 2015 and completed the first phase in 2016. The strategic water resources analysis is aimed at developing options of measures (water resources infrastructure and management options) for meeting the growing water demand in the Nile Basin sustainably reducing the stress on the river system and minimizing water allocation related tensions among the riparian countries.
The first phase of the analysis focused on water supply and demand assessment and yielded estimates of water availability and water demands/uses as of 2014 and projections into 2050. Further, a Nile Basin water resources model was developed, which included existing water infrastructure and those planned to be implemented in the 2050 time horizon. According to plans compiled from the Nile Basin countries, irrigated agriculture is expected to expand approximately by 60 percent of the 2014 baseline. Further, irrigation water demand is expected to remain the main water user (estimated to consume up to 75 – 80 % of water) in the foreseeable future. According to UN estimate[1], total population of the basin countries is projected to reach 932 Million to 1.14 Billion inhabitants (low and high growth variant). Further, the proportion of the population living in urban areas is increasing with implication in water demand growth. The first phase estimated current (as of 2014) M and I water demands for selected urban centers but no projection was made for 2050. Therefore, the Nile-Sec intends to refine current estimates of M and I water demand/use and projections into the 2050 time horizon. Further, in order to support generation of options for meeting the growing water demand more efficiently, the Nile-Sec plans to develop options for water saving in the M and I water use sectors.
3. Objective
The overall objective of the Assignment is to contribute towards generation of strategic options for meeting the growing water demands in the Nile Basin more efficiently and sustainably.
The specific objectives of the assignment are:
i) To develop refined baseline water demand and actual M and I water use for 2016
ii) To develop projection of water demands and water use estimates for Municipal and Industrial uses for the Nile Basin in the 2050 time horizon
iii) Develop viable scope for water saving from the municipal and industrial water use sectors through employment of various measures, such as demand side management, adoption of water efficient technologies and reduction of losses.
4. Approach
The projection of population and water demand shall be based on credible data and methodology commensurate with the intended use of the projections. The following are key elements of the approach that the Consultant is required to follow in developing the projections:
The projection methodology must be valid and widely acceptable, both by users of the results and demographic forecasting practitioners.
The projection approach must be transparent and understandable to the extent possible.
The projections must be replicable.
In keeping with state-of-the-art practice employed internationally and by NBI countries, the projections must be economically based and then linked to demographic factors in an integrated manner.
The projections must be able to produce population forecasts for each country to the year 2050 under high, medium, and low economic development assumptions.
5. Scope of work
The scope of work shall include the secondary data collection, processing, consulting and any other analytic work needed to prepare the projections of water demands as well as scenarios of water saving from Municipal and Industrial water use sectors. The overall scope of the Assignment has to parts:
i) projection of water demand for Municipal and Industrial water use sectors;
ii) generate scenarios of water savings from Municipal and Industrial water uses through various water saving measures.
The scope of work includes, but not limited to, the following:
Task 1: Develop a data base of current M&I water uses in the basin
i) Develop a typology of M&I water uses as appropriate to the NBI strategic water resources assessment and this assignment. This shall include municipal, industrial and energy sector water needs;
ii) Systematically compile and process collected data on key water uses/users for preparing the projections. Where data obtained from national sources are not sufficient, use appropriate methodology to fill in the data gaps, including use of data from credible regional and international sources;
iii) For the energy sector, extract the site of major energy generating capacities (oil and gas extraction industry, coal and natural gas-fired and nuclear power generation plants) in a site by site database from the appropriate studies – providing classification of the plants.
iv) A georeferenced database of the water users is required that can link to extraction nodes from the water balance model. The initial focus (scoping of assignment) shall be on those M&I water users that consume water from the main stream / lakes of the river network. This is to be discussed and refined with the client. Therefore for each water user (a municipality or major industrial water use complex (aggregated) there needs to be a table describing the source (by %) of the water (river, groundwater, etc.)
v) Avail the systematically compiled data on key water uses to the client. The client intends to use its staff resources to prepare a database of key water uses/users in the Nile Basin for future studies and regular updating. The consultant shall supervise the preparation of database of key water uses/users;
vi) NBI can assist – through the national experts – in filling in data gaps through detailed questionnaires prepared by the consultant and forwarded to the countries to compile. Prepare refined estimates of baseline water demand and actual water use for 2016; this refined estimate shall be based on the estimates made by Nile-Sec for 2014 but further enhanced through new data collected under the Assignment.
Task 2: Develop projections of M&I Water Use
i) Collect and review available population and economic projection scenarios, data and methodology prepared by NBI countries (including national census), RECs, UN agencies, the private sector in the Nile Basin countries, the World Bank and other relevant national, sub-regional and regional entities;
The scenarios shall include, among others, consistent scenarios of population growth, economic growth – including industrial growth and living standard changes.
ii) Propose two scenarios of population and economic development from the above for use by NBI. For this extract population projections for the Nile Basin countries with specific focus on the parts of the countries within the Nile Basin; the projections will be disaggregated by:
o Mega cities (those >= 2 million people)
o Medium size cities (250,000 to 2 million)
o Urban centers (less than 250 000)
iii) Develop methodology for M&I water demand projections based on review of available methodologies and the consultant’s own expert judgment; the methodology will be discussed with the client and, as needed, with a group of stakeholders from NBI countries;
iv) Develop projections of water demands for each of the nodes:
o Mega cities (those >= 2 million people)
o Medium size cities (250,000 to 2 million)
o Urban centers (less than 250 000)
For the following use components in these nodes:
o Municipal water needs (groundwater, surface water)
o Industrial (groundwater, surface) :
v) For the energy sector make use of scenarios (e.g. basin wide power study) to provide a projection of power generation sites and water demands.
Task 3: Asses water saving potential in M&I Water Use
vi) Develop scopes / rough assessments for water saving for key sectors covered in the projections through adoption of measures, such as demand side management, reduction of losses, and use of more water-efficient technologies. Describe the types of measure to be included in a potential future basin plan / investment plan moving forward.
Task 4: Data collection, Consultation and Reporting
i) The client foresees the option for engaging national consultants to support in national data collection. In this regard, when requested, consultant will assist the client in selection of sourcing support of national consultants, task-manage national data collection and integrate the data into the overall projection of water demand.
ii) Physical participate in review workshops and present findings from the Assignment, respond to stakeholder requests. Further accommodate stakeholder review comments into findings of the Assignment;
iii) Submit successive progress reports of the Assignment (Inception, Interim, draft Final and Final reports) together with all data and literature compiled and any toolkit developed for the Assignment.
iv) Once the findings of the Assignment are agreed upon with the client, the findings of the Assignment will be documented into two formats:
o Policy briefs: Up to 1 policy briefs are expected to be prepared to communicate the findings of the Assignment to NBI decision makers and the wider public. The policy brief is expected to be of about 5 pages.
o Technical Notes: These are substantive reports presenting the methodology and detailed findings of the Assignment. Each Technical Note is expected to be approximately 25 pages.
The consultant shall develop the policy briefs and technical notes and submit the same to the client. Detailed contents of the two documents will be agreed with the client on the course of the assignment.
6. Schedule
The Assignment is expected to start on/about May 2018 and lasts for 6 calendar months
7. Level of effort, budget and payment schedule
The total level of effort for this assignment is expected to be 75 man-days distributed over the contract period from on/about 14 May 30 November 2018. This includes inputs of any sub-consultants the consultant might need to engage to execute the assignment. The Client shall pay the consultant a total professional fee of USD (to be determined based on agreed daily professional fee rate).
Cost for work related travels for the consultant shall be separately paid by the Client as per prevailing regulations of the NBI. It is estimated that the consultant shall undertake two trips to the NBI region. The total travel related costs shall not exceed USD xxx. All travels will have to be approved by the task manager and arrangements for the Consultant shall be made by the Client, according to GIZ and NBI rules and procedures.
8. Consultant’s proposal
Interested consultants are requested to submit technical as well as financial proposals (two envelops) to the client. The client shall consider the quality of the technical approach, methodology and consultant’s expertise in the selection of the consultant for the assignment. Final selection of the consultant and award of the contract shall be based on considerations of technical as well as financial proposals.
How to apply:
Interested qualified individual Consultants from Nile Basin Countires are advised to download the full Terms of Reference for this assignment from http://nilebasin.org/index.php/consultancies and to submit their Application/cover letters and CV electronically to the Executive Director at: consultant@nilebasin.org with a copy to embonye@nilebasin.org not later than 18th May 2018 at 1700 EAT clearly indicating the title of this assignment in the subject of the mail.